In response to the May 2014 flood in Bosnia and Herzegovina the World Bank Group launched the $100 million Flood Emergency Recovery Project. The project will meet critical needs and restore functionality of infrastructure essential for public services and economic recovery—such as rural development, energy, transport, water and sanitation. But just as important, with projections of increased flooding as the climate changes, the project will provide technical assistance and capacity building to help build resilience against disasters. [2]
Amidst these transformations, it is crucial to recognize that children and young people will bear the brunt of the changing climate. As the future stewards of the environment and the upcoming decision-makers, their perspectives and actions are pivotal in addressing the climate crisis effectively. [1]

Bosnia and Herzegovina is at risk of hydrometeorological hazards and natural disasters, which are expected to primarily affect agriculture and human health, through seasonal flooding and periods of drought. The projected impacts of climate change make BiH increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards: droughts, heat waves, heavy precipitation, landslides, and floods. The most common natural disasters are associated with heavy rainstorms that may cause mudslides and flooding of large agricultural land, houses and industrial buildings, and lead to other changes in the environment. Droughts may become more frequent in some areas due to river runoff decrease or drying in the country’s lowland areas and increased demand and consumption from economic development and population growth. Climate change is expected to increase the risks and severity of natural disasters in BiH through more intense temperatures as well as rainfall patterns, prolonged heat waves, and water scarcity. [3]
The charts provide an overview of the most frequent natural disasters in a given country and understand the impacts of those disasters on human populations. [3]

In terms of international obligations on climate change mitigation and adaptation, BiH supports the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Economic and other specifics should be taken into account when determining the transition period for the transition to a low-carbon economy. The goal of the low-carbon strategy is to create synergies with the concept of developing new green businesses and the economy, the concept of a circular economy in which resources are used to the maximum, and waste generation is reduced to a minimum. Under the UNFCCC, Bosnia and Herzegovina is considered a non-Annex I Party, i.e. developing or transitional countries. The non-Annex I parties are not obliged to take greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction action but are encouraged to do so with financial support from developed countries. In this context, BiH participated in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) with three registered projects. In 2013, the Council of Ministers adopted The 2013-2025 Climate Change Adaptation and Low Emission Development Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose strategic goal was to increase BiH’s resilience to climate variability and climate change, while preventing environmental degradation and gradually reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Integration into all relevant sectors is very slow, mainly due to a lack of knowledge and institutional capacity. [4]

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s size, varying topography and unique landscape, result in the country being characterized by several distinct climate types: temperate continental in the northern and central regions, colder climates for the sub-mountainous and mountainous, and an Adriatic climate and modified Adriatic climate along its coast. The country’s climate varies from a temperate continental climate in the northern Pannonian lowlands along the Sava River and in the foothill zone, to an alpine climate in the mountain regions, and a Mediterranean climate in the coastal and lowland area of the Herzegovina region in the south and southeast. These climate characteristics are influenced by the Adriatic Sea as well as local topography, particularly the Dinarides Mountains, which are located along the coast and run from the northwest to the southeast parallel to the coast. [3]

BiH has demonstrated its commitment to participate in global efforts aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change by signing the Paris Agreement. As a contribution to the fulfilment of the Paris Agreement, it adopted the document ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)’ for the period until 2030. The document is based on previously adopted strategic documents, such as the Adaptation to Climate Change and Low Carbon Development Strategy of BiH, and the documents Second National Communication on Climate Change under the UNFCCC and the First Biennial Report on Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the UNFCCC. According to the scenarios developed within the INDC, the highest level of GHG emissions is reached in 2030, when according to the baseline scenario, 20% higher emissions are expected than the 1990 level of emissions. As an unconditional target of reducing GHG emissions, BiH has set a goal of a 2% reduction in 2030 concerning emissions according to the baseline scenario. The conditional target (with more international assistance) is to reduce emissions by 3% compared to 1990 emissions. [4]

References

[1] https://reliefweb.int/report/bosnia-and-herzegovina/learning-see-climate-crisis-children-and-young-peoples-perceptions-climate-change-and-environmental-transformation-bosnia-herzegovina
[2] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/494741468189532505/pdf/98220-WP-P148173-PUBLIC-Box393168B-pdf.pdf
[3] https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/bosnia-and-herzegovina/vulnerability
[4] https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ENG_CC%20adaptation%20and%20Low%20emission%20development%20Strategy%20BiH%202020-2030.pdf

At the same time, the region has unique habitats, home to remarkable biodiversity, which need to be protected and conserved. To improve the situation, sustainable and reliable ways of managing water supply, wastewater and waste disposal are crucial and have a strong impact on environmental protection, citizens’ health, and tourism in the region. Given the EU perspective of the region, EU targets, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 % by 2030, must frame the systemic modernisation of the region and its future growth. [1]

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also identified the Western Balkans as one of the most vulnerable areas in Europe. The region will face rises in temperature larger than the European average, and changes in precipitation patterns, leading to increased flood risk, extended periods of drought, soil erosion and forest fires. Climate change will most probably increase negative impacts, resulting in significant habitat, human and economic losses. The floods in 2014 demonstrated that the region is not prepared nor adequately equipped to deal with the increasing dangers posed by climate-related impacts. Although improvements in flood prevention and protection systems have been made since 2014, more recent flood events in 2019 and 2020 showed that more needs to be done to adequately address floods and related disasters. [2]

The Climate Challenge for The West Balkans:

The dominance of rain-fed agriculture in the Western Balkans makes the agriculture sector especially vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures. The climate extremes of a 4°C warmer world in the Western Balkans would pose major risks not only to agriculture but also to energy and population security [3]. They include:

• The Western Balkans emerges as one of the planet’s Warming HotSpots, with more frequent heat waves, escalating to as much as 80% of summer months in a 4°C warmer world.

• The mean average summer temperature in the Western Balkans could climb to 7.5°C above pre-industrial times. As the climate warms the area’s Small Glaciers will be gone within decades.

• Rainfall is projected to decline 20–30% in the Western Balkans at 4°C warming.

• The increasing occurrence (by 20%) of Drought Days will be a major threat to agriculture.

• Water Availability in summer is expected to decrease throughout the century. Annual river discharge could be reduced by more than 45% by 2100 in a 4°C world.

• Winter and Spring Flood Risk is expected to increase, particularly along the Danube, Sava and Tisza rivers.

• Crop Yields in FYR Macedonia alone could drop by 50% by 2050 as the temperature climbs.

• Hydropower which plays an important role in the region’s electricity supply, will be at risk. In Albania for example the annual average output from large hydropower plants could be reduced by 15% and 20% for smaller plants.

• Health Risks will grow as the climate warms with the growing threat of dengue fever. Heat-related mortality would increase by 20% to 1,000 per million people

The international community and the EU have set the stage for action for the countries of the Western Balkans region. The Global 2030 Development Agenda, the Paris Climate Agreement with its NDCs, along with the Sendai Disaster Risk Reduction Framework and the ongoing EU accession process, are tremendous opportunities for Serbia as well as other countries of the region. It can help them to create innovative and resilient sector-specific policies and actions that will provide stable and sustainable societies capable of adapting to global societal and climate challenges. Moreover, by adhering to the SDGs and EU standards, it is becoming clear that economic development and prosperity can only be achieved if they go hand in hand with the protection of the environment from pollution and coping with changing climate conditions. Only such an integrated approach can prevent social insecurities arising out of food and water shortages, migrations and displacements due to extreme weather events, disease outbreaks due to global temperature increase etc. Eventually, our economies can only be sustainable if they aim to become carbon neutral. [4]

Secure and resilient societies are those that timely invest in disaster risk reduction and preparedness. By bringing national disaster prevention and recovery policies to the level of local self-governments and creating enabling policy and regulatory frameworks for local actions, much of the losses and damages can be avoided or at least alleviated. This is why effective coordination mechanisms and stakeholder involvement in the management of natural and man-made disasters are of crucial importance alongside ongoing climate emergencies. [4]

The EU responding:

As neighbours and aspiring EU members, addressing climate challenges in the Western Balkans is a priority for the EU [5]. The EU is behind numerous initiatives in the region that aim to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This includes, for example, funding for large-scale sustainable energy and transport projects channelled through the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) – an EU-led donor investment platform that pools funds from various sources, including the EU budget. The rehabilitation of the Tirana – Durrës railway line in Albania, a modernised tram fleet in Sarajevo, upgraded district heating systems in Pristina, the Bogdanic wind park in North Macedonia, the Trans-Balkan Electricity Corridor crisscrossing the region…are just some of the many projects that have made a positive difference to people’s lives, businesses and the environment across the region. The prospect of EU membership also provides an incentive for Western Balkan partners to bring legislation and practices into line with EU norms. The EU is very active in supporting the regulatory and policy reforms needed in the region.

Climate change and its impacts are felt across boundaries affecting water management and supply decisions – whether related to droughts, floods or other challenges. Cooperation and action across sectors will be key to overcome these challenges and to make our societies more resilient. Nature plays a major role in achieving sustainable development goals and reducing disaster risks. [2]

[1]  https://www.wbif.eu/sectors/environment

[2]  https://www.iucn.org/news/eastern-europe-and-central-asia/202008/water-our-ally-adapting-climate-change-western-balkans

[3]  https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/494741468189532505/pdf/98220-WP-P148173-PUBLIC-Box393168B-pdf.pdf

[4] https://www.belgradeforum.org/climate-change-as-a-human-security-issue-in-the-western-balkans/

[5] https://webalkans.eu/en/themes/environment/climate-action/

Now, as the countries of the region strive for individual and collective stability, they face the additional challenges brought by climate change and do so against a background of new international borders and dynamic populations with strong ethnic identities. [2]

Despite these challenges, however, the six West Balkan countries (the Republic of Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; the Republic of Croatia; the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Montenegro; and the Republic of Serbia) that are the subjects of this report have all experienced rising GDP in the 1995– 2009 period except the slight declines in 2008 corresponding to the global financial crisis. In addition, all have made progress towards membership in the European Union. And in perhaps the most encouraging sign of all, the younger generations are demonstrating an astonishingly high degree of bottom-up cooperation across a range of issues.
[2]

However, clouds are gathering on the horizon. In parallel to this welcome growth, climate and disaster risks are also increasing, putting vulnerable communities in jeopardy. In 2014 we saw historic flooding that caused over €2 billion in damages and losses in Bosnia and Herzegovina (nearly 15% of the country’s gross domestic product) and over €1.5 billion in damages in losses in Serbia (nearly 5% of Serbia’s GDP). Last summer we witnessed record temperatures that buckled train tracks, fueled dozens of fires across the Balkans, caused a drought in Serbia which led to a drop in agriculture output of nearly 10 %, and forced Albania to spend €200 million on energy imports amid a devastating drought. All of these extreme events serve as stark reminders of just how vulnerable the region is to climate-related shocks. [1]

Governments are turning to innovative technologies to better understand changing climate and disaster risk, and take effective action. For example, with support from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), as well as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and USAID, countries throughout the Balkans are sharing real-time hydrometeorological data and forecasts to provide critical flood information. Compiling this information into advanced flood models will provide critical early warnings for vulnerable communities, and help officials analyze long-term climate trends. Innovations like powerful machine learning algorithms, affordable high-resolution drones, and digital financial tools are fast becoming mainstream. However, additional effort is needed to ensure that these technologies are effectively leveraged for climate and disaster resilience.  [3]

Supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Bank, ongoing partnerships with neighbouring countries are improving the process of sharing hydrometeorological data – enhancing weather forecasting efforts and bolstering broader European meteorological systems. By working across borders, these countries can provide better early warnings for disaster and climate risks to all of their citizens. As weather patterns become more uncertain in the region, governments within the Balkans will need to take increasingly proactive approaches to ensure the safety and prosperity of communities. Strong international partnerships – and forward-looking investments in resilience – will help the region adapt to whatever weather comes its way.
[1]

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2018/09/17/it-is-time-for-action-on-climate-risk-in-the-balkans 

[2] https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/publications/climate-change-in-the-west-balkans/11278310 

[3] https://www.gfdrr.org/en/feature-story/tackling-climate-extremes-technology-balkans